FISCAL INCENTIVES, INVESTMENT, AND TOURISM SECTOR PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN
Abstract
This study examines fiscal incentives, investment, and tourism performance in Uzbekistan using mixed-methods analysis. The November 2025 incentive package (subsidies up to 1 billion soum, VAT refunds, and customs benefits) increased hotel construction by 35% and tourist arrivals to 98% of pre-pandemic levels (6.626 million). Tourism GDP contribution grew to 1.4% annually with a 4:1 investment multiplier. However, 84% of tourists rated marketing inadequate, eco-tourism infrastructure remains underdeveloped, and service quality gaps persist. Strong correlation between marketing and arrivals (r = 0.85) versus moderate investment-performance correlation (r = 0.62) indicates fiscal incentives alone cannot address all barriers. Recommendations include centralized marketing support, targeted incentives for emerging segments, human capital investment, and improved monitoring. Findings demonstrate that comprehensive policy frameworks for sustainable tourism-led development must complement fiscal incentives.
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