ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF AIR TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS ON THE FORMATION AND CHANGE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE KASHKADARYA BASIN UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE.
Abstract
The Kashkadarya Basin is characterized by strong elevation gradients, with river runoff influenced by precipitation, snow accumulation, and melt processes in mountainous areas. Changes in air temperature may alter the timing and spatial distribution of snow cover and consequently affect seasonal water availability. This study examines long-term air-temperature variability and spatial snow-cover dynamics in the Kashkadarya Basin under changing climatic conditions. Historical observations from the Mingchukur (1951–2023) and Guzar (1928–2023) meteorological stations were analyzed using comparative, statistical, and trend-analysis methods. Annual mean, maximum, and minimum air temperatures were evaluated for both stations. In addition, MOD10A1 snow-cover data were processed in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to compare the spatial distribution of snow cover in 2013 and 2025. The results indicate an overall increase in air temperature at both stations, with particularly notable warming in recent decades. The monthly analysis at Guzar also indicates higher temperatures during 1991–2023 than during the preceding periods. Snow cover was concentrated primarily in the eastern and high-mountainous parts of the basin and showed a strong relationship with elevation. The comparison of the 2013 and 2025 snow-cover maps suggests spatial differences in snow-cover distribution; however, quantitative analysis using consistent observation periods and spatial statistics is required to attribute these changes directly to climate change. The findings provide a basis for further assessment of climate-related changes in snow and water-resource conditions in the Kashkadarya Basin.
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